SMU Election Project - ME

1 day to go- Barack Obama has strong lead in ME

2008-11-03T12:57:00.000-08:00

With one day until the election, it is evident that Barack Obama will atleast get 3 if not all 4 of Maine's electoral votes. Many polls, including the Rasmussen Report has Obama leading McCain by double digits- 56% to 43%. This link however, does not discuss the continuous efforts that John McCain and his campaign have put into the Second District of Maine. With the rural, conservative demographics in the second district in Maine, John McCain may be able to find supporters that Obama may not have accounted for. While the second district may be a toss up, the state can still be considered strong Obama. I would predict that there is a 50/50 chance for McCain to win that one electoral vote, but he has absolutley no chance in winning the other 3 from Maine.

10 Days- 3 votes Strong Obama, 1 vote to close to call?

2008-10-24T09:58:00.000-07:00

Could One Vote Swing Entire Election? Well with all of the energy the McCain campaign is putting into the Maine's second district, I sure hope so.

With 10 days until the election, Maine could split their electoral votes 3-1. Maine is one of only two states which separates their electoral votes and allows for two statewide votes and one additional vote for each of its two districts. News sources have reported that McCain has strengthened his efforts in the Second district of Maine, placing more of his ad’s in central and northern Maine, in order to try to win its single electoral vote.

The second district in Maine has always been considered more conservative than the rest of the state, and voters in this district say that with Sarah Palin on the ticket, they are more enthusiastic than ever to support the Republican Ticket. Being a rural district, many of the voters feel that they have a connection with the McCain/Palin values on issues such as gun owner rights and because of this, republican leader’s in the state see the second district as very competitive and leaning towards McCain.

The Obama Campaign welcomes the increased competition, and with 9 field offices in the second district they are not going to back down. Whereas McCain connects with Rural Maine’s on specific social issues like gun control, Obama finds connections with these same citizens through his optimism and plans for healthcare and economic reforms. Because of concerns for financial security in Rural Maine, the Obama campaign has placed ad’s out to remind the voter’s in this district why they need to depend on him rather than men like McCain. (See this Video)

With pollster.com showing Obama ahead of McCain 53.5% to 38.3%, it is clear that the state is strong Obama. But with the fight over the single electoral vote in the second district, it is almost as if this district is it’s own state. If this were the case, this “state” would be to close to call right now. But, with the majority of the electoral votes (3 our of 4) most definantly going to Obama, I would say as a whole the state is Strong Obama.

2 Maine Newspapers Endorse Obama!

2008-10-21T19:44:00.000-07:00

http://bangornews.com/detail/91432.html

Absentee Ballots in Maine top 28,000 with two weeks away!

2008-10-21T19:41:00.000-07:00

http://bangornews.com/detail/91307.html

Sarah Palin visits Maine- October 16

2008-10-21T19:37:00.000-07:00

Although the RNC pulled their resources out of Maine, the McCain campaign had an event in Maine that re-engergized the republican base of the second district in Maine. Regardless of his slim chances of winning all four electoral votes, the McCain campaign insisted that Palin still go speak with the citizens of Maine.

http://bangornews.com/detail/91255.html

Laid-off and ready for Obama

2008-10-21T19:31:00.000-07:00

http://bangornews.com/detail/91225.html

Republican National Committee Pulls out of Maine

2008-10-21T19:19:00.001-07:00

On October 16, the night before Sarah Palin made a visit to Maine, the RNC announced that it would be taking its television ad's out of Maine and they would be putting focusing advertising dollars more in the "traditional red states," rather than more blue states such as Wisconsin and Maine. Although this was a strategic move by the RNC, and the McCain campaign should not have put money in this state in the first place, the RNC should not have pulled out on the eve of Palin's visit to the state.
The McCain campaign does not seem to be on the same page as the RNC, considering something like this happened. Either way, the Obama campaign is outspending the McCain campaign by 2-1, and McCain does not have the same amount of money Obama has to spend on states that are not likely for him. Instead of wasting money that he does not have to waste, the campaign and the RNC need to converse about which states these ad's will proove to be more effective and beneficial for the victory in Novemeber.

Does McCain REALLY have a chance in Maine?

2008-10-07T08:08:00.000-07:00

Is it wise for John McCain to be moving staff members to Maine to plan an aggressive advertising buy in targeted state markets? Well, if you are solely looking at the voting history of this state in former presidential elections, it would be safe to say that McCain is wasting his money. But, recent polls such as Rasmussen and surveyUSA suggest that Maine may be more of a battle than anyone may have expected. Both of these polls are suggesting that McCain numbers have increased, and that Obama is merely 4 points ahead of him in the state.

What is unusual about Maine is that it is one of two states that splits its electoral votes by congressional district. The 2nd district, which includes all of northern and eastern Maine, has always been an ally to the Republican Party. Therefore, if McCain suggests putting any resources in Maine, he should focus them within this congressional district in order to win at least one of the four congressional votes in this state.

Toby McGrath, Obamas campaign director for Maine, does not believe that McCain’s sudden focus on Maine will have much, if any affect on Obama’s victory over the state. Because of Obama’s early and strong attention in Maine since June with his door-to-door campaign efforts and other campaign strategies, McGrath feels that the only electoral vote that the Obama camp needs to worry about would be that of the 2nd congressional district. McGrath said “I’m of the opinion that it’s just the one vote in play, but I think McCain thinks the whole state is in play.” Mark Brewer, a political scientist at the University of Maine agreed that the 2nd district would be a toss up with the increased advertising and resources, but while McGrath believes that McCain has no chance of winning any other congressional district in Maine, Brewer is merely uncertain.

In my opinion, I believe that if McCain believes thinks he can win more than one electoral vote in the state, then he should go ahead and put some of his resources there, but if he only has a chance of winning the 2nd district electoral vote, I believe that he should focus his efforts and resources in other key battleground states that have more electoral votes. Secondly, if the rumors are true that McCain is focusing on Maine, I would not be surprised to see him or his running mate making a visit to the Pine Tree State.

McCain broadens efforts in Maine

2008-10-04T12:21:00.000-07:00

Although John McCain announced that he would be abandoning his efforts in Michigan, a battleground state that was won by Kerry in 2004, McCains resources are not going to go unnoticed. Reports have shown that not only will his resources be sent to other battleground states such as Ohio, Florida and Wisconsin, but he is also said to be looking into increasing efforts to win the four electorl votes in Maine. A McCain aide has reported that the campaign will be opening a front in Maine, and they have already checked advertising rates and media markets in the state this week. (Check this website)

Palin impresses local crowd

2008-10-04T12:14:00.000-07:00

http://www.seacoastonline.com/articles/20081002-NEWS-81002071

Even Republicans for Obama

2008-10-04T12:09:00.000-07:00

http://www.seacoastonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080903/NEWS/80903045&emailAFriend=1

50 Days: MAINE - Leaning Obama

2008-09-14T19:00:00.000-07:00

With 50 days until the election, Maine is very close to being strong Obama, but I would still say they are in the leaning Obama section.

According to Pollster.com, Barack Obama leads John McCain in Maine- 52.8% to 39%. In the past 4 election cycles, Maine has voted Democrat:
Kerry- 53% to Bush- 45%
Gore-49% to Bush-44%
Clinton-52% to Dole- 31%
Clinton-39% to Bush- 30%

(http://www.pollster.com/polls/me/08-me-pres-ge-mvo.php)

While these numbers clearly favor Obama, the poll that had Obama leading over McCain 52 to 39 did not include the"independent voters." The Rasmussen Report has included the "leaners"
and actually have Obama only ahead of McCain by 8% rather than the 13% that pollster.com had him ahead by.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/maine/maine_mccain_pulls_within_ten

Also, according to the report above, the main issues in Maine include the economy and national security. With that, Obama wins the majority of Maine voters on the issue of Economics with his plan while McCain wins the majority of Maine voters on the issue of National Security with his plan.

Currently, Maine has a strong republican vote for the senate race (http://www.pollster.com/polls/me/08-me-sen-ge-cva.php), which could bring a few more voters out for McCain on November 4th, but not enough to take the state from Obama. Also, both the republican senators from Maine, Snowe and Collins, have been succesful in Maine because they are on the fringes of the national GOP, and they are more in tune with Maine's more reform liberal bend. Even as a Republican, Collins will bring out democratic supporters, the same supporters who would cast an Obama vote instead of McCain. With this being said, I do not see this senate race having any major affect on the presidential election.

Maine- Just some facts

2008-09-14T18:52:00.000-07:00

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/maine/election_2008_maine_presidential_election

Maine, Mainly Obama

2008-09-11T10:15:00.000-07:00

According to Pollster.com, Barack Obama leads John McCain in Maine- 52.8% to 39%. In the past 4 election cycles, Maine has voted Democrat.
Kerry- 53% to Bush- 45%
Gore-49% to Bush-44%
Clinton-52% to Dole- 31%
Clinton-39% to Bush- 30%